Thu, Dec 4, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 4, Edmonton Oilers 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 211 | 113 | 18 | 432 |
| EDM | 310 | 310 | 312 | 932 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:17EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:34EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 11:27EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 16:07SEAEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Kaapo Kakko · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 19:33SEAFrederick GaudreauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 2:28EDMMatt SavoieSHAssists: Evan Bouchard, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 6:14EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P2 8:53EDMZach HymanAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–6
- P2 9:30SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
- P3 2:03EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.26 xG3–7
- P3 6:59EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.01 xG3–8
- P3 8:58EDMMatt SavoiePPAssists: Adam Henrique, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.17 xG3–9
- P3 19:55SEAJani NymanAssists: Shane Wright, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–9
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:20SEARyker Evans: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 14:07EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:20EDMConnor Clattenburg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:43EDMAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:35SEABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:11SEABrandon Montour: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 7:10SEAEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKakko – Nyman – Wright9:10
xG 0.98–0.65 (60%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers12:08
xG 1.00–0.80 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Kartye – Winterton9:07
xG 0.48–0.36 (58%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – Catton9:56
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Lindgren12:03
xG 1.03–0.38 (73%)attempts 22–7goals 0–1
- Dunn – Evans2:19
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:36
xG 0.64–0.84 (43%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Janmark – Mangiapane10:26
xG 0.96–0.42 (69%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Podkolzin – Savoie11:40
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Lazar – Frederic – Clattenburg4:14
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:20
xG 0.56–0.96 (37%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Regula15:33
xG 0.74–0.48 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:40
xG 0.89–0.80 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 3–2
- Kulak – Emberson15:19
xG 0.58–0.85 (40%)attempts 8–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).