Fri, Dec 5, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 29 | 03 | 01 | 1 | 321 |
| ANA | 112 | 215 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:29WSHTom WilsonAssists: Justin Sourdif, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:16ANACutter GauthierAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 6:06WSHEthen FrankUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 6:19ANARoss JohnstonAssists: Radko Gudas, Olen Zellweger · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 7:38WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Matt Roy, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 17:59ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Ross Johnston · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Leo Carlsson stopped
- 2. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 3. ANA Troy Terry scored
- 4. WSH Anthony Beauvillier scored
- 5. ANA Mason McTavish scored
- 6. WSH Ethen Frank stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:34ANABeckett Sennecke: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:04WSHJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:22WSHJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:40WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:46WSHJakob Chychrun: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:07ANAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min
- P3 8:52WSHDylan Strome: Interference2 min
- P3 9:45ANAJackson LaCombe: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – McMichael – Leonard2:34
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Protas – Sourdif4:25
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank3:03
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas5:28
xG 0.25–0.28 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chisholm8:10
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Fehérváry2:15
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Chychrun12:45
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke9:02
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Strome – Vatrano2:51
xG 0.31–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson13:18
xG 0.50–0.46 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Granlund – McTavish – Gauthier2:39
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Zellweger10:30
xG 0.66–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Trouba – LaCombe15:39
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 19–19goals 0–1
- Helleson – Mintyukov12:12
xG 0.20–0.68 (23%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).