Sat, Dec 6, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 114 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 234 |
| TOR | 07 | 03 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:25MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Ivan Demidov · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P3 10:28TORScott LaughtonSHAssists: Nicolas Roy · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 2. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 4. MTL Alexandre Texier scored
- 5. TOR John Tavares stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:22MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:52TORJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:58TORTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:43MTLNoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:54TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P3 8:36TOREaston Cowan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:33MTLArber Xhekaj: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:15
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Veleno – Bolduc – Davidson6:57
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans9:14
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Texier – Kapanen – Demidov8:53
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson16:43
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson2:09
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Struble – Hutson12:30
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Lorentz – Robertson5:04
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – McMann6:18
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – Knies9:54
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Laughton – Joshua – McMann3:35
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly13:01
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:46
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher2:09
xG 0.13–0.22 (36%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).