Sun, Dec 7, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 212 | 113 | 03 | 328 |
| PHI | 13 | 19 | 013 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09PHISean CouturierAssists: Noah Juulsen, Owen Tippett · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 8:28COLBrent BurnsAssists: Martin Necas, Jack Drury · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 19:08COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 1:47COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 5:58PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Emil Andrae, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:25PHINoah Juulsen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:45PHITrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:52COLMartin Necas: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:54COLNathan MacKinnon: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas14:50
xG 0.86–0.65 (57%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Bardakov4:20
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta2:37
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin2:20
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:52
xG 0.78–0.71 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Makar – Malinski2:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski11:32
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Zegras14:26
xG 1.18–0.58 (67%)attempts 24–17goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols6:19
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Grebenkin12:24
xG 0.32–0.49 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Michkov10:07
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestZamula – Drysdale4:01
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Andrae2:57
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Andrae – Drysdale14:34
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).