Tue, Dec 9, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 214 | 19 | 19 | 432 |
| OTT | 210 | 110 | 018 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 5:09NJDSimon NemecAssists: Connor Brown, Arseny Gritsyuk · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:59OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 17:59NJDArseny GritsyukAssists: Connor Brown, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 4:21NJDPaul CotterUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 10:35OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 12:24NJDCody GlassGWGAssists: Arseny Gritsyuk, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:36NJDStefan Noesen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:46OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:31NJDBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:52NJDAngus Crookshank: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:52OTTTyler Kleven: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:06OTTArtem Zub: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:32NJDNico Hischier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Glass – Gritsyuk8:30
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–4goals 3–0
- Palat – Bratt – Mercer9:38
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier3:40
xG 0.17–0.30 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Glendening – Cotter – Crookshank4:41
xG 0.08–0.55 (12%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Nemec10:36
xG 0.47–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Dillon – Siegenthaler2:04
xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler12:55
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 4–21goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Greig11:12
xG 1.12–0.34 (76%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Cousins – Zetterlund – Stützle7:07
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Cozens11:21
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Eller – Halliday2:12
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Sanderson3:59
xG 0.73–0.04 (95%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Jensen – Matinpalo10:27
xG 0.52–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Sanderson – Zub11:55
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).