Tue, Dec 9, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vegas Golden Knights 4, New York Islanders 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 212 | 09 | 211 | 05 | 0 | 437 |
| NYI | 113 | 26 | 18 | 00 | 1 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02VGKNoah HanifinAssists: Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:01VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 19:33NYIBo HorvatAssists: Ryan Pulock, Matthew Schaefer · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 3:56NYIMarc GatcombAssists: Casey Cizikas, Kyle MacLean · Snap, 0.30 xG2–2
- P2 13:30NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Calum Ritchie, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 1:27VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Braeden Bowman, Jack Eichel · Poke, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:15NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Maxim Shabanov · Slap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 19:46VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Mitch Marner, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 3. VGK Mitch Marner stopped
- 4. NYI Simon Holmstrom stopped
- 5. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 6. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 7. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 8. NYI Emil Heineman scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:37NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:31VGKMitch Marner: Interference2 min
- P1 10:54NYIIlya Sorokin: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:55VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:55NYIAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:24VGKBrett Howden: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:44VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:39NYIAdam Pelech: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:56NYIKyle MacLean: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Marner – Howden9:55
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Hertl – Dorofeyev12:51
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman10:18
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt5:02
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Korczak9:50
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Whitecloud11:56
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud3:19
xG 0.18–0.08 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Heineman – Shabanov12:40
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:49
xG 0.37–0.15 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal11:43
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Duclair – Holmstrom – Ritchie8:10
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Mitchell9:45
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:48
xG 0.04–0.21 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo12:37
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).