Tue, Dec 9, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Anaheim Ducks 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 210 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 429 |
| PIT | 116 | 112 | 112 | 07 | 0 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:49PITNoel AcciariAssists: Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:19ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Cutter Gauthier · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:10ANATroy TerryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 19:41PITTommy NovakAssists: Erik Karlsson, Ryan Shea · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 16:05PITAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:59ANABeckett SenneckeSHUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Tommy Novak stopped
- 2. ANA Leo Carlsson scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. ANA Troy Terry stopped
- 5. PIT Ville Koivunen stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:47ANALeo Carlsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:31ANAChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:22ANATroy Terry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:10PITDanton Heinen: Interference2 min
- P3 15:58ANAVille Husso: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 19:42ANAChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke12:14
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Killorn – Strome – Vatrano6:05
xG 0.05–0.52 (9%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Granlund – Johnston – Poehling10:23
xG 0.28–0.94 (23%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson10:45
xG 0.15–0.95 (14%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Trouba – LaCombe17:02
xG 0.33–0.92 (26%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov12:26
xG 0.42–1.16 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Gudas – Zellweger13:54
xG 0.15–1.20 (11%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKoivunen – McGroarty – Kindel9:11
xG 1.22–0.13 (90%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Novak11:44
xG 1.12–0.27 (80%)attempts 21–10goals 1–2
- Heinen – Acciari – Dewar8:45
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Hayes – Mantha – Brazeau10:07
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Graves12:27
xG 1.46–0.07 (95%)attempts 22–5goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea15:30
xG 1.62–0.23 (88%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Letang – Karlsson2:16
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).