Thu, Dec 11, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 211 | 19 | 429 |
| PIT | 04 | 016 | 218 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54MTLAlexandre TexierUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:37MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 10:18MTLCole CaufieldPPGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 0:44PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 0:59MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Ivan Demidov · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 15:07PITErik KarlssonPPAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:16MTLAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P1 13:48PITJustin Brazeau: Holding2 min
- P2 4:58MTLNoah Dobson: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:29PITVille Koivunen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:32MTLJared Davidson: Holding2 min
- P3 2:15PITDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:11MTLIvan Demidov: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:46MTLAlexandre Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50MTLAdam Engstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:41PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Bolduc11:17
xG 1.02–0.39 (72%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov9:08
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Anderson – Texier – Beck6:56
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Veleno – Davidson4:43
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson13:11
xG 1.24–0.30 (81%)attempts 21–14goals 3–0
- Matheson – Carrier12:43
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Struble – Engstrom10:36
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Hayes – Mantha – Brazeau5:06
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Koivunen – McGroarty – Kindel7:30
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Heinen – Acciari – Dewar8:23
xG 0.05–0.40 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Novak10:34
xG 0.60–1.00 (38%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Graves12:05
xG 0.70–0.60 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon12:07
xG 0.52–0.87 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Letang – Shea11:58
xG 0.06–1.02 (6%)attempts 5–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).