Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 29 | 08 | 226 |
| NSH | 212 | 413 | 17 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Matthew Wood, Fedor Svechkov · Bat, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:19NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Roman Josi, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 4:17STLHugh McGingAssists: Robby Fabbri, Philip Broberg · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:38NSHRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:43NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Luke Evangelista, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 12:06NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Fedor Svechkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 13:56STLRobert ThomasAssists: Philip Broberg, Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P2 15:33NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Matthew Wood, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 7:36NSHMichael BuntingPPAssists: Luke Evangelista, Nick Blankenburg · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:07NSHReid Schaefer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:16STLRobby Fabbri: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:19STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:19NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:13STLPius Suter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:43STLCam Fowler: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:15NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:53NSHAdam Wilsby: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – McGing – Dvorsky3:19
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Suter – Kaskimaki2:50
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours10:18
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Fabbri – Suter – Dvorsky5:34
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg2:50
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Fowler – Mailloux3:07
xG 0.02–0.04 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg11:50
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Svechkov – Wood7:34
xG 1.20–0.03 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 4–0
- Forsberg – McCarron – Schaefer3:00
xG 0.36–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Bunting – Evangelista2:06
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista7:55
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Hague10:42
xG 0.82–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Stastney – Blankenburg9:40
xG 0.73–0.17 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Skjei – Wilsby6:59
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).