Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Florida Panthers 2, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 08 | 15 | 225 |
| COL | 220 | 314 | 18 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14COLSam MalinskiAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:21FLANoah GregorAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 18:30COLBrock NelsonAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 5:05COLGavin BrindleyGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Josh Manson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 7:18COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 12:31COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Gavin Brindley, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 6:18COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Martin Necas, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–6
- P3 13:08FLAMackie SamoskevichAssists: A.J. Greer, Evan Rodrigues · Snap, 0.30 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:33FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:19COLJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:52FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P2 18:52FLAMackie Samoskevich: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:47COLGavin Brindley: Holding2 min
- P3 14:58FLAAaron Ekblad: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:42
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–3
- Greer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich7:42
xG 0.32–0.64 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Gregor – Boqvist – Studnicka9:42
xG 0.12–0.61 (16%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett11:59
xG 0.20–0.95 (18%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Balinskis12:04
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Ekblad – Balinskis2:40
xG 0.01–0.27 (3%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Petry – Forsling3:46
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin8:19
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Brindley5:52
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 2–1
- Olofsson – Colton – Brindley3:33
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta2:28
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson9:56
xG 1.02–0.21 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Girard – Malinski9:32
xG 0.55–0.16 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Burns – Malinski3:13
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).