Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 26 | 02 | 315 |
| VAN | 112 | 18 | 012 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:36BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:49VANKiefer SherwoodPPAssists: Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:15VANMax SassonAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 9:12BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 14:46BUFZach BensonPPGWGAssists: Josh Doan, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:40VANArshdeep Bains: Interference2 min
- P1 19:17BUFJack Quinn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:17VANTom Willander: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:17BUFJack Quinn: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:09VANFilip Hronek: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min · PPG
- P2 15:44VANDrew O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:44BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:13BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:31BUFBeck Malenstyn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Greenway – Rosen – Kozak6:22
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson9:35
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Kozak3:42
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Doan13:08
xG 0.42–0.61 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Power4:56
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:00
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 8–19goals 2–0
- Timmins – Dahlin2:31
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Hoglander – Sasson2:53
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Hoglander – Räty – Bains5:27
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Karlsson – Sasson5:24
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Sherwood – O'Connor8:28
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Pettersson3:50
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes4:22
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hronek – Pettersson2:00
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).