Sat, Dec 13, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 06 | 417 | 11 | 631 |
| PIT | 112 | 320 | 110 | 01 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:27SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Sam Dickinson, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:41PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 0:19PITRutger McGroartyAssists: Ben Kindel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 9:42PITKevin HayesAssists: Noel Acciari, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 19:53PITBryan RustPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Anthony Mantha · Slap, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 5:25PITAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–5
- P3 7:33SJSJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 14:19SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–5
- P3 17:33SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Collin Graf · Slap, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 18:22SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–5
- OT 2:57SJSJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Collin Graf · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:19PITConnor Clifton: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:33SJSMacklin Celebrini: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:52SJSJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:52PITAnthony Mantha: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:01SJSWill Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:15SJSNick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:19SJSDmitry Orlov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:55PITRyan Graves: Holding2 min
- P3 3:30SJSMacklin Celebrini: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:30SJSMacklin Celebrini: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:30PITParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:39PITConnor Dewar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:54PITErik Karlsson: Broken stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKurashev – Smith – Celebrini6:33
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Smith – Celebrini2:39
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Celebrini – Graf2:15
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Gaudette2:53
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Ferraro11:02
xG 1.16–0.34 (77%)attempts 15–15goals 1–2
- Orlov – Klingberg14:34
xG 0.87–0.37 (70%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Iorio – Dickinson10:41
xG 0.55–0.97 (36%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBrazeau – McGroarty – Kindel6:37
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Hayes – Acciari – Dewar6:53
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Mantha – Novak – Koivunen9:01
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell8:17
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Shea11:55
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon11:35
xG 0.60–0.59 (50%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Clifton – Graves11:39
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).