Sat, Dec 13, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 28 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 421 |
| PHI | 27 | 09 | 12 | 00 | 0 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:04PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Trevor Zegras, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:34PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Travis Konecny, Jamie Drysdale · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 9:11CARNikolaj EhlersAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 14:12CARAlexander NikishinAssists: Joel Nystrom, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 12:26CARSeth JarvisAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 12:49PHICarl GrundstromAssists: Rodrigo Abols, Noah Juulsen · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Trevor Zegras stopped
- 2. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 3. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 5. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 6. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 7. PHI Bobby Brink stopped
- 8. CAR Jackson Blake scored
Penalties (2)
- P1 3:57PHIMatvei Michkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:54PHITrevor Zegras: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Stankoven – Blake13:31
xG 0.76–0.32 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:38
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier13:55
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson8:03
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller18:51
xG 0.80–0.55 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield19:05
xG 0.82–0.66 (55%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Nikishin – Nystrom10:29
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Michkov12:20
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Grebenkin9:18
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Abols – Grundstrom9:40
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras12:09
xG 0.42–0.96 (30%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Andrae – Drysdale17:20
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 6–19goals 2–0
- Juulsen – Murchison12:58
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 3–12goals 1–1
- Seeler – Sanheim17:32
xG 0.23–0.92 (20%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).