Sat, Dec 13, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 03 | 09 | 113 | 125 |
| WPG | 213 | 210 | 112 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:13WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Bat, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:43WPGMorgan BarronGWGAssists: Adam Lowry, Alex Iafallo · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 3:39WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 19:53WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 11:55WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–5
- P3 16:32WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:50WPGMark Scheifele: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:59WPGJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:52WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:18WPGMorgan Barron: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:24WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:02WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:49WPGGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:30WPGLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Duhaime – Trineyev9:09
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Lapierre – Frank4:02
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Wilson – Strome – McMichael2:38
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McMichael – Lapierre – Frank4:33
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Fehérváry2:15
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin5:28
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry3:26
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:09
xG 0.88–0.46 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Lowry – Iafallo – Barron9:15
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti11:21
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Koepke6:45
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk13:21
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey9:48
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Stanley2:43
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).