Sat, Dec 13, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 013 | 117 | 07 | 11 | 238 |
| LAK | 17 | 04 | 011 | 00 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:10LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Alex Laferriere, Joel Edmundson · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:41CGYBlake ColemanSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 1:06CGYMorgan FrostGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:07LAKSamuel Helenius: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:07CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:34LAKAlex Laferriere: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:52LAKKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20CGYKevin Bahl: Holding2 min
- P2 9:07LAKBrian Dumoulin: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:23CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:12LAKCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Byfield won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Beecher – Klapka5:21
xG 0.49–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary6:03
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato12:19
xG 0.38–0.70 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich13:17
xG 0.31–0.87 (26%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kuznetsov17:38
xG 0.64–0.58 (52%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Hanley – Brzustewicz9:31
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl14:55
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Fiala – Byfield9:26
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Foegele – Moore – Turcotte7:59
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Laferriere10:34
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Ceci13:04
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Clarke11:38
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:40
xG 0.65–0.81 (44%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).