Mon, Dec 15, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 112 | 18 | 14 | 331 |
| WPG | 07 | 210 | 07 | 01 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:47OTTNick CousinsAssists: Kurtis MacDermid, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 15:37WPGNeal PionkAssists: Kyle Connor, Cole Perfetti · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 18:35WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Morgan Barron, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 18:06OTTJake SandersonAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 2:11OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:48WPGLuke Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:06WPGMark Scheifele: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:13OTTKurtis MacDermid: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:18WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:36OTTDrake Batherson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Cozens9:11
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Greig6:48
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Amadio – Tkachuk – Stützle2:31
xG 0.39–0.13 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle5:47
xG 0.21–0.16 (58%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven11:49
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Sanderson – Zub15:05
xG 1.02–0.69 (60%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Jensen – Kleven2:06
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti10:15
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Koepke6:48
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:00
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Lowry – Iafallo – Barron10:28
xG 0.39–0.80 (33%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk13:52
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley8:23
xG 0.44–0.22 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:08
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).