Tue, Dec 16, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 27 | 26 | 623 |
| PIT | 19 | 19 | 212 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:38EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 11:52EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 19:15PITTommy NovakAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 4:35EDMMatt SavoieAssists: Alec Regula, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 6:24PITErik KarlssonPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 9:36EDMEvan BouchardPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 6:47EDMVasily PodkolzinGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 16:51PITBryan RustAssists: Anthony Mantha, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–3
- P3 18:41EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.64 xG6–3
- P3 19:46PITDanton HeinenAssists: Tommy Novak, Ryan Shea · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:14EDMMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:12PITDanton Heinen: Interference2 min
- P1 10:20PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:38PITBrett Kulak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 5:30EDMLeon Draisaitl: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:06PITJustin Brazeau: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:02EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P2 18:14EDMAlec Regula: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:14EDMTy Emberson: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:06
xG 0.75–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Podkolzin – Savoie8:52
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:18
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Janmark – Mangiapane8:32
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard11:41
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Emberson – Stastney10:29
xG 0.44–0.57 (43%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Nurse – Regula15:02
xG 0.42–1.14 (27%)attempts 9–26goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Mantha – Novak5:47
xG 0.68–0.09 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Heinen – Acciari – Dewar8:11
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell9:08
xG 0.67–0.70 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Brazeau – McGroarty – Kindel9:13
xG 0.10–0.31 (24%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon10:04
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Wotherspoon – Shea2:23
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Letang – Shea13:26
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).