Tue, Dec 16, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 0, Minnesota Wild 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 09 | 05 | 025 |
| MIN | 19 | 115 | 38 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09MINVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Danila Yurov, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 12:51MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 4:23MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Danila Yurov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 8:53MINDanila YurovAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P3 14:12MINMatt BoldySHAssists: Matt Kiersted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:39MINDanila Yurov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:55WSHRasmus Sandin: Holding2 min
- P2 11:53WSHMartin Fehérváry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:23WSHJakob Chychrun: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:44MINDavid Jiricek: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:22WSHAliaksei Protas: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Beauvillier5:32
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Dowd – Duhaime – McMichael6:52
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas3:32
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Milano – Lapierre – Frank8:22
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry9:18
xG 0.89–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin9:27
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Carlson – Sandin4:02
xG 0.06–0.05 (52%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hartman – Aube-Kubel11:21
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy10:17
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Jones – Sturm8:34
xG 0.30–0.40 (42%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov8:57
xG 0.45–0.73 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber19:20
xG 0.97–0.59 (62%)attempts 16–23goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Faber2:37
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Jiricek5:05
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).