Tue, Dec 16, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 29 | 08 | 113 | 330 |
| SJS | 39 | 07 | 310 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02SJSJohn KlingbergAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 6:00SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Zack Ostapchuk, Vincent Iorio · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 11:01CGYBlake ColemanAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Connor Zary · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 14:23CGYRyan LombergAssists: Adam Klapka · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 19:41SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Ty Dellandrea · Poke, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 2:46SJSMacklin CelebriniGWGAssists: Collin Graf, Igor Chernyshov · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 12:53SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: William Eklund, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 13:31CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 18:50SJSMacklin CelebriniENAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.80 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:32SJSTimothy Liljegren: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:14SJSWilliam Eklund: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:38CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Dellandrea
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Frost – Klapka3:17
xG 0.11–0.00 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary12:42
xG 0.79–0.75 (52%)attempts 18–8goals 1–2
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich12:35
xG 0.56–0.83 (40%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato7:01
xG 0.19–0.70 (21%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kuznetsov14:53
xG 0.78–0.34 (69%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Weegar – Andersson2:09
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hanley – Brzustewicz10:41
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCelebrini – Graf – Chernyshov9:39
xG 0.93–0.24 (79%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund9:39
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk6:49
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini3:06
xG 0.09–0.04 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMukhamadullin – Iorio11:05
xG 1.05–0.36 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Orlov – Klingberg16:41
xG 1.23–0.54 (69%)attempts 20–17goals 3–1
- Ferraro – Liljegren16:45
xG 0.68–1.07 (39%)attempts 13–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).