Wed, Dec 17, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 119 | 09 | 39 | 437 |
| NSH | 05 | 06 | 115 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:00CARJackson BlakeAssists: Logan Stankoven, Alexander Nikishin · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 2:43CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 4:33CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 8:06NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 19:15CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:28NSHBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:09CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:20NSHSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:01CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:25CARTaylor Hall: Holding2 min
- P2 13:54NSHRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:24NSHNick Perbix: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Jankowski – Robinson7:10
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake9:52
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier4:32
xG 0.04–0.01 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:41
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller16:06
xG 1.03–0.44 (70%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Slavin – Nikishin10:13
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield12:47
xG 0.17–0.65 (21%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg3:23
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer8:09
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista5:01
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Svechkov – Wood3:28
xG 0.01–0.14 (4%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Wilsby11:51
xG 0.66–0.47 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Josi – Blankenburg3:28
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Perbix11:57
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).