Thu, Dec 18, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 06 | 213 | 04 | 223 |
| CGY | 018 | 114 | 314 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:52SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Frederick Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 10:20CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Joel Hanley · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 17:16SEAKaapo KakkoPPAssists: Ryker Evans, Jani Nyman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 10:04CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Morgan Frost · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:19CGYMatt CoronatoGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:52CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Nazem Kadri, Joel Farabee · Backhand, 0.81 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:38SEAAdam Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:06SEAVince Dunn: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:42CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 18:32SEAChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:03SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:36SEARyker Evans: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKartye – Melanson – Meyers8:27
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen8:51
xG 0.38–0.37 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Eberle – Marchment – Beniers12:21
xG 0.26–0.66 (29%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Kakko – Nyman – Wright9:23
xG 0.08–0.51 (13%)attempts 2–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:45
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Lindgren14:49
xG 0.61–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Mahura – Evans10:51
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Huberdeau2:00
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato8:57
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary8:41
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka5:10
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Brzustewicz9:13
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Weegar – Bahl2:13
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov15:02
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).