Thu, Dec 18, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 210 | 110 | 530 |
| SJS | 012 | 214 | 111 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:25DALRoope HintzAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 17:38DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 1:43SJSShakir MukhamadullinAssists: Ty Dellandrea · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 8:40DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 16:44SJSCollin GrafAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 19:17DALJustin HryckowianGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 4:32SJSCollin GrafAssists: Igor Chernyshov, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
- P3 18:42DALJamie BennENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:58DALSam Steel: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:04SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:21DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:18DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSteel – Bourque – Hryckowian6:24
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian4:04
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bäck4:53
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Rantanen – Johnston14:44
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Petrovic – Lyubushkin9:20
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen16:18
xG 1.02–0.98 (51%)attempts 22–16goals 2–1
- Petrovic – Harley2:32
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCelebrini – Graf – Chernyshov13:23
xG 1.12–0.38 (75%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk6:32
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund11:50
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Gaudette – Dellandrea – Cardwell8:37
xG 0.05–0.60 (7%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ferraro – Liljegren14:30
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg18:38
xG 0.79–0.87 (47%)attempts 23–23goals 1–1
- Mukhamadullin – Iorio9:37
xG 0.08–0.25 (26%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).