Fri, Dec 19, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 011 | 26 | 02 | 1 | 329 |
| FLA | 012 | 011 | 315 | 03 | 2 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:53CARJordan StaalAssists: Eric Robinson, Shayne Gostisbehere · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 1:27CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 7:34CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 10:16FLABrad MarchandAssists: Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 17:35FLASam BennettAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Sam Reinhart · Bat, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:18FLASam ReinhartAssists: Brad Marchand, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Anton Lundell stopped
- 2. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 3. FLA Sam Reinhart scored
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 5. FLA Brad Marchand stopped
- 6. CAR Jackson Blake scored
- 7. FLA Evan Rodrigues scored
- 8. CAR Nikolaj Ehlers stopped
Penalties (8)
- P2 2:48CARK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:08FLAJesper Boqvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:35FLABrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:48FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:07CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P3 15:17FLAA.J. Greer: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:17CARSebastian Aho: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- OT 5:00CARSean Walker: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rodrigues won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:55
xG 0.82–0.78 (51%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Hall – Jankowski – Kotkaniemi7:52
xG 0.03–0.17 (13%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake11:15
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Carrier – Robinson8:07
xG 0.08–0.50 (14%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Walker7:12
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield6:31
xG 0.55–0.41 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin8:26
xG 0.23–0.28 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett12:18
xG 1.10–0.28 (80%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Greer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich10:11
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Kunin – Gregor – Boqvist5:51
xG 0.07–0.11 (37%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:31
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola18:01
xG 1.15–0.44 (72%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling14:44
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Petry – Balinskis10:38
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).