Fri, Dec 19, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vancouver Canucks 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 39 | 012 | 110 | 431 |
| NYI | 08 | 05 | 111 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57VANDavid KampfAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:35VANKiefer SherwoodGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 15:47VANKiefer SherwoodPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Tom Willander · Snap, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 14:55NYIAnders LeeAssists: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 18:39VANKiefer SherwoodENAssists: Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:15VANLinus Karlsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:17VANKiefer Sherwood: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:01NYIMarc Gatcomb: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:51NYIMatthew Schaefer: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:04VANNils Hoglander: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:19NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:04VANTom Willander: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Ohgren – Sasson6:28
xG 0.29–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Sherwood – O'Connor6:58
xG 0.30–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Boeser – Garland – Rossi10:54
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Kampf – Hoglander8:11
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Buium10:09
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Pettersson – Hronek15:12
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Willander – Buium2:12
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Ritchie – Shabanov6:29
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:54
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pageau – Drouin – Heineman2:20
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Drouin – Barzal – Heineman5:27
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo11:46
xG 1.04–0.32 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pulock2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:29
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).