Fri, Dec 19, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 17 | 17 | 222 |
| COL | 211 | 011 | 14 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:45COLBrent BurnsAssists: Josh Manson, Joel Kiviranta · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 15:05COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 19:22WPGMorgan BarronSHAssists: Alex Iafallo · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 1:58COLParker KellyGWGAssists: Josh Manson, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 3:38WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:55COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P2 2:45COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:45WPGTanner Pearson: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:33WPGMark Scheifele: Holding2 min
- P2 12:50WPGNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:04WPGCole Perfetti: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:31COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Nyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov2:58
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Pearson3:11
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti3:42
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–2
- Lowry – Iafallo – Barron9:20
xG 0.08–0.57 (13%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Samberg – Pionk16:34
xG 0.09–0.43 (17%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Stanley2:08
xG 0.00–0.49 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:00
xG 0.33–0.87 (28%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:39
xG 0.71–0.16 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin10:12
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Brindley6:37
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta8:31
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:34
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski14:51
xG 0.76–0.37 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson13:07
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).