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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 20, 2025·TD Garden, Boston

Vancouver Canucks 5, Boston Bruins 4 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.

BOS winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
VAN141928021523
BOS11321717060443

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:23BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:45VANMax SassonAssists: Liam Ohgren, Linus Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:22VANLinus KarlssonPPAssists: Evander Kane, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:41BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. P2 12:05BOSTanner JeannotAssists: Mark Kastelic, Fraser Minten · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 3:53VANLinus KarlssonAssists: Marco Rossi · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P3 7:34VANLiam OhgrenAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
  8. P3 16:16BOSAndrew PeekeAssists: Marat Khusnutdinov, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. VAN Jake DeBrusk stopped
  2. 2. BOS Casey Mittelstadt stopped
  3. 3. VAN Linus Karlsson stopped
  4. 4. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
  5. 5. VAN Brock Boeser stopped
  6. 6. BOS Marat Khusnutdinov stopped
  7. 7. VAN Conor Garland stopped
  8. 8. BOS Andrew Peeke stopped
  9. 9. VAN Kiefer Sherwood stopped
  10. 10. BOS Michael Eyssimont stopped
  11. 11. VAN Evander Kane stopped
  12. 12. BOS Elias Lindholm stopped
  13. 13. VAN Liam Ohgren scored
  14. 14. BOS Morgan Geekie stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:34VANTyler Myers: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 10:25VANMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 16:19BOSAndrew Peeke: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 3:12BOSMichael Eyssimont: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 8:36BOSJeffrey Viel: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 8:36VANEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 1:15VANDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 8:11BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
  9. P3 9:53BOSHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
47% to win53% to win
← VAN attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Kampf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANBOS
23Shots on goal43
1.9Expected goals4.0
47Shot attempts74
23Faceoffs won36
4Power plays3
8Penalty minutes10
29Hits20
15Blocked shots11
16Giveaways16
5Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestKarlsson – Ohgren – Sasson4:27

    xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0

  2. DeBrusk – Kampf – Ohgren3:45

    xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

  3. Kane – DeBrusk – Kampf5:38

    xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  4. Kane – Karlsson – Rossi4:19

    xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPettersson – Willander9:07

    xG 0.37–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0

  2. Myers – Pettersson3:26

    xG 0.04–0.42 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  3. Myers – Buium11:39

    xG 0.24–0.71 (26%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestLindholm – Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov5:38

    xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  2. Lindholm – Pastrnak – Mittelstadt6:40

    xG 0.31–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  3. Zacha – Geekie – Mittelstadt5:15

    xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  4. Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten10:58

    xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestSoderstrom – Lohrei10:20

    xG 0.80–0.18 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0

  2. Lindholm – Peeke15:18

    xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2

  3. Zadorov – Peeke2:20

    xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 4.0 xGVAN 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #74 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.74 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.

BOS winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).