Sat, Dec 20, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 19 | 121 | 337 |
| CGY | 311 | 210 | 15 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman, Connor Zary · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 8:42CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Yan Kuznetsov, MacKenzie Weegar · Deflected, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 10:03VGKReilly SmithAssists: Mark Stone, Zach Whitecloud · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 15:45CGYRyan LombergAssists: Connor Zary, John Beecher · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 8:38CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Connor Zary · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 12:21CGYJoel FarabeeSHAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–5
- P2 14:34VGKKaedan KorczakAssists: Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 16:03VGKMark StonePPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mitch Marner · Bat, 0.01 xG3–5
- P3 19:15CGYJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.79 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:49CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:49VGKJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:07CGYMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:50CGYYan Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Marner – Dorofeyev8:07
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Stone – Howden10:16
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev3:17
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Saad – Barbashev – Bowman8:22
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak17:00
xG 1.39–0.31 (82%)attempts 23–8goals 1–1
- Hutton – Hanifin8:27
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Whitecloud5:05
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary12:31
xG 0.89–0.88 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka7:35
xG 0.07–0.28 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich11:26
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato10:24
xG 0.25–0.68 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Brzustewicz13:23
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl18:08
xG 0.79–1.20 (40%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Weegar – Kuznetsov20:38
xG 0.67–1.33 (34%)attempts 15–32goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).