Sun, Dec 21, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 015 | 17 | 128 |
| DAL | 14 | 04 | 414 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:30DALJason RobertsonAssists: Oskar Bäck, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 5:03DALSam SteelGWGAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 8:39TORScott LaughtonAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 12:10DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:55DALMavrik BourqueENAssists: Esa Lindell, Jake Oettinger · Snap, 0.82 xG1–4
- P3 19:43DALJustin HryckowianAssists: Jamie Benn, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:15DALMiro Heiskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:54TORMatias Maccelli: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:31DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:17TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:31DALIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:05DALThomas Harley: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:36TORPhilippe Myers: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blackwell won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Maccelli7:46
xG 1.22–0.30 (80%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Laughton – Joshua – Lorentz7:27
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Laughton – Nylander – Maccelli2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – Knies8:25
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Myers8:31
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly3:56
xG 0.30–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Hryckowian2:49
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Benn – Steel – Hryckowian4:26
xG 0.30–0.16 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston3:07
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bäck7:44
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen13:40
xG 1.02–0.75 (58%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Lyubushkin7:25
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Lundkvist – Harley10:05
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).