Tue, Dec 23, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 05 | 514 | 522 |
| CAR | 16 | 110 | 03 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11CAREric RobinsonAssists: Sebastian Aho, Joel Nystrom · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:58CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 3:53FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 6:17FLALuke KuninAssists: Noah Gregor, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:00FLAAnton LundellGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 9:57FLASam BennettAssists: A.J. Greer, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 15:21FLASeth JonesPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:19FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P1 14:02CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:48CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:52FLAJesper Boqvist: Interference2 min
- P2 19:36FLABrad Marchand: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:36CARK'Andre Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:44CARK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56CARMark Jankowski: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Bennett – Greer7:31
xG 0.63–0.09 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:13
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Kunin – Gregor – Studnicka5:59
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett4:50
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola13:47
xG 1.08–0.15 (88%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:30
xG 0.89–0.51 (64%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Petry – Balinskis10:58
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Aho – Stankoven4:20
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kotkaniemi – Stankoven – Nadeau3:53
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson5:14
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Svechnikov – Blake5:13
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chatfield5:23
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Nikishin – Nystrom2:41
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Walker – Nikishin5:31
xG 0.40–0.42 (48%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).