Sat, Dec 27, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
New York Rangers 0, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 010 | 010 | 027 |
| NYI | 110 | 07 | 19 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58NYIAnders LeeGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 19:43NYISimon HolmstromENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:51NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:56NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:09NYRBraden Schneider: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:56NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P3 1:49NYITony DeAngelo: Interference2 min
- P3 1:49NYRNoah Laba: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:58NYRWill Cuylle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:18NYICalum Ritchie: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 12:35NYRVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P3 14:41NYICalum Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:59NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Rempe – Othmann4:27
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière10:30
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Cuylle – Laba7:29
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Brodzinski – Perreault7:08
xG 0.03–0.64 (5%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Morrow8:56
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider14:46
xG 0.95–0.87 (52%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen8:56
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Barzal – Holmstrom10:19
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:43
xG 0.39–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman9:29
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Pageau – Ritchie – Shabanov6:39
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo12:54
xG 1.17–0.62 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Warren7:34
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer12:21
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).