Sat, Dec 27, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 419 |
| WPG | 110 | 29 | 06 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:36WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 18:29MINMatt BoldyAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 7:33MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Danila Yurov · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:56WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 19:57WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:38MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 0:39MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:26MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:26WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:58MINVladimir Tarasenko: Interference2 min
- P1 19:58WPGGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:32MINMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:07WPGTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:36MINYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:36WPGLogan Stanley: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:30WPGDylan DeMelo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy4:40
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov7:51
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Hartman3:38
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Sturm6:22
xG 0.11–0.27 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Middleton8:55
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber2:50
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin11:25
xG 0.28–0.44 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:31
xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Lowry – Pearson – Barron9:37
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti6:07
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Niederreiter4:18
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:03
xG 1.11–0.31 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- DeMelo – Samberg2:18
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley9:14
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).