Sat, Dec 27, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 010 | 112 | 231 |
| CGY | 114 | 110 | 18 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:00CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Adam Klapka · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:36EDMEvan BouchardPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:28CGYRyan LombergUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 12:31CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 15:23EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard · Poke, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:12CGYYan Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:03EDMZach Hyman: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:03CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:16EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:42EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:36CGYYan Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:06CGYKevin Bahl: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:14
xG 1.04–0.51 (67%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid4:46
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Janmark – Roslovic – Frederic2:24
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Mangiapane – Savoie3:59
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Emberson – Stastney8:47
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nurse – Regula10:57
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard16:24
xG 1.49–1.58 (48%)attempts 22–26goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Farabee – Sharangovich9:15
xG 1.07–0.23 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka4:52
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato6:17
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary6:54
xG 0.22–0.85 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kuznetsov16:11
xG 1.07–0.42 (72%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Hanley – Brzustewicz10:02
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Andersson – Bahl16:34
xG 1.08–1.74 (38%)attempts 22–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).