Sun, Dec 28, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 06 | 416 | 02 | 0 | 435 |
| TBL | 03 | 312 | 15 | 01 | 2 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:28TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Gage Goncalves · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 12:11TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Gage Goncalves · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 14:49TBLNick PaulAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Maxim Groshev · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 1:06MTLIvan DemidovAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 1:40TBLPontus HolmbergAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 9:16MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Oliver Kapanen · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 12:17MTLNoah DobsonAssists: Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:56MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TBL Gage Goncalves scored
- 2. MTL Ivan Demidov stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:50TBLMax Crozier: Holding2 min
- P1 12:15TBLNick Paul: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:46MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:46TBLScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:07TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Holding2 min
- P2 3:54MTLAlexandre Texier: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov10:39
xG 1.54–0.34 (82%)attempts 22–6goals 2–1
- Danault – Anderson – Texier4:40
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Blais – Veleno6:51
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Bolduc4:47
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson18:27
xG 1.99–0.33 (86%)attempts 31–11goals 2–1
- Carrier – Hutson13:07
xG 1.24–0.36 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Struble – Hutson2:49
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:36
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Goncalves4:50
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel6:31
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Sabourin – Bjorkstrand – Paul2:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser13:57
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- D'Astous – Crozier2:17
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Carlile2:19
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).