Sun, Dec 28, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 08 | 114 | 133 |
| SEA | 07 | 17 | 36 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:48SEAJordan EberleAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 5:49SEAChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Eeli Tolvanen · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 17:31SEAEeli TolvanenENAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Deflected, 0.83 xG0–3
- P3 18:03PHICarl GrundstromAssists: Rodrigo Abols, Nikita Grebenkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 18:24SEAEeli TolvanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:40SEABerkly Catton: Holding2 min
- P1 12:22SEARyan Lindgren: Holding2 min
- P2 13:52SEAKaapo Kakko: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Barkey10:45
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras11:59
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Cates – Brink – Michkov9:25
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Abols – Grundstrom – Grebenkin10:45
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York14:31
xG 0.65–0.19 (78%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Seeler – Ristolainen15:48
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale14:17
xG 0.64–0.44 (60%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Kartye – Melanson – Meyers7:31
xG 0.02–0.10 (20%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen11:38
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- McCann – Wright – Catton11:06
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Eberle – Kakko – Beniers14:00
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Lindgren – Fleury12:30
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Evans14:03
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn17:09
xG 0.13–0.82 (14%)attempts 9–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).