Mon, Dec 29, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 313 | 07 | 527 |
| VGK | 06 | 15 | 15 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:06MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 0:26MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 4:32MINBrock FaberAssists: Yakov Trenin, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–0
- P2 6:56MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Matt Boldy, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–0
- P2 16:50VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 2:14VGKMark StoneAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:13VGKTomas Hertl: Boarding5 min
- P1 2:13VGKTomas Hertl: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 9:39MINNico Sturm: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:40MINJake Middleton: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:26VGKBraeden Bowman: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy7:57
xG 0.68–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–2goals 4–0
- Tarasenko – Hinostroza – Hartman8:05
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Foligno – Trenin – Sturm9:30
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Yurov10:51
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin12:41
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Middleton12:31
xG 0.70–0.66 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton2:02
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Marner10:22
xG 1.02–0.37 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Saad – Sissons – Kolesar6:50
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Howden – Bowman6:04
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Hanifin7:42
xG 0.95–0.30 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 1–3
- McNabb – Whitecloud2:14
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Hutton – Lauzon2:11
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).