Mon, Dec 29, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 5, Anaheim Ducks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 27 | 23 | 13 | 513 |
| ANA | 114 | 114 | 214 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:43SJSMario FerraroAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Adam Gaudette · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:02ANATroy TerryAssists: Nikita Nesterenko · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 19:12SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 6:30SJSIgor ChernyshovAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickinson · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 12:17SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 16:26ANACutter GauthierAssists: Troy Terry, Ryan Poehling · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 3:07ANAPavel MintyukovAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Ian Moore · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 13:47SJSZack OstapchukGWGAssists: Vincent Iorio, Barclay Goodrow · Tip-in, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 15:58ANATroy TerryAssists: Mason McTavish, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:33ANADrew Helleson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:13SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:41SJSMario Ferraro: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:04ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:51SJSJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Graf10:36
xG 0.08–0.39 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk6:24
xG 0.26–0.62 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Gaudette – Dellandrea6:57
xG 0.10–0.74 (12%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Eklund – Celebrini – Chernyshov11:13
xG 0.58–1.35 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 2–3
Defence pairs
- Ferraro – Dickinson2:42
xG 0.08–0.08 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Orlov – Klingberg16:03
xG 0.35–0.74 (32%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Iorio – Dickinson10:33
xG 0.19–0.78 (20%)attempts 5–13goals 2–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Poehling – Nesterenko10:45
xG 0.92–0.28 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Kreider – McTavish – Sennecke4:12
xG 0.64–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Strome – Harkins7:36
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Gauthier – Carlsson4:35
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Mintyukov11:16
xG 1.30–0.23 (85%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Helleson – LaCombe8:25
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
- LaCombe – Moore4:50
xG 0.43–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).