Wed, Dec 31, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 111 | 012 | 127 |
| CGY | 13 | 313 | 110 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:30CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matt Coronato, Blake Coleman · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:08CGYJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Yan Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 8:49PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–2
- P2 12:03CGYRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Connor Zary, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:52CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Matt Coronato, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 9:37CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Ryan Lomberg · Snap, 0.17 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:12CGYYan Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:21PHICam York: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:25PHIChristian Dvorak: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:56CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:56PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:13PHIJamie Drysdale: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:24CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beecher won the faceoff against Abols
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Zegras12:05
xG 1.41–0.31 (82%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Couturier – Tippett – Barkey9:03
xG 0.56–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Cates – Brink – Michkov8:44
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Abols – Grundstrom – Grebenkin9:31
xG 0.22–0.74 (23%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Juulsen10:43
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Ristolainen – York14:31
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Drysdale2:25
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Coronato10:10
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Klapka5:17
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Beecher – Zary3:39
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka5:43
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Brzustewicz11:20
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov18:11
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Andersson – Bahl15:50
xG 0.40–0.81 (33%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).