Thu, Jan 1, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Utah Mammoth 7, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 05 | 36 | 410 | 721 |
| NYI | 011 | 18 | 13 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:36UTADylan GuentherAssists: Barrett Hayton, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 2:35NYICalum RitchieAssists: Maxim Shabanov, Marshall Warren · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:20UTADylan GuentherAssists: Lawson Crouse, Barrett Hayton · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 16:19UTANick SchmaltzGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 2:52UTAMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 5:41UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 11:48NYIMatthew SchaeferPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Maxim Shabanov · Snap, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 13:54UTADylan GuentherAssists: Lawson Crouse, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–2
- P3 16:55UTANick SchmaltzAssists: JJ Peterka, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.23 xG7–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:17UTAJack McBain: Interference2 min
- P1 13:50NYIAdam Pelech: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:34UTAClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:39NYIMatthew Schaefer: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:26UTAAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:17NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:02NYIMathew Barzal: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 10:41UTAIan Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:23NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Peterka10:03
xG 0.83–0.18 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Stenlund8:50
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Crouse – Hayton – Guenther8:18
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 3–0
- Carcone – McBain – But8:06
xG 0.07–0.43 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – DeSimone8:46
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Marino9:39
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Schmidt – DeSimone2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Tsyplakov8:14
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal6:58
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Ritchie – Tsyplakov – Shabanov2:52
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Ritchie – Shabanov7:43
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo7:27
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 0–2
- Pulock – Schaefer8:56
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Warren10:46
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).