Thu, Jan 1, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 110 | 17 | 00 | 327 |
| PIT | 26 | 09 | 114 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:46PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:46DETJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Marco Kasper, Simon Edvinsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 1:01DETAndrew CoppAssists: Ben Chiarot, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 15:51PITBlake LizotteAssists: Erik Karlsson, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 17:02DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 0:58PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:20PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:44DETNate Danielson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:43PITBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P1 12:47PITParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:19PITTommy Novak: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 10:09PITBryan Rust: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 11:42DETLucas Raymond: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:01DETLucas Raymond: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:08PITBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:14PITJack St. Ivany: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat7:53
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kasper – Danielson4:41
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie9:18
xG 0.03–0.30 (10%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Compher – Appleton – Rasmussen12:40
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Johansson7:28
xG 0.24–0.13 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka8:34
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Johansson4:35
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Novak – Brazeau6:58
xG 0.61–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell11:42
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte6:54
xG 0.32–0.25 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Chinakhov – McGroarty – Kindel7:06
xG 0.02–0.34 (5%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Kulak15:02
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon10:48
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Shea – St. Ivany8:52
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).