Thu, Jan 1, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
40%
9%
10%
41%
PIT winsDET wins
Detroit Red Wings
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26:10 | 0.02 | 21.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 0 | 23:32 | 0.24 | 6.1% | +44.7 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −2 | 3 | 22:24 | 0.09 | 28.3% | +12.6 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 21:58 | 0.25 | 6.1% | +44.7 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 0 | 19:54 | 0.00 | 25.0% | +20.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 17:21 | 0.33 | 37.1% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17:08 | 0.34 | 56.4% | +44.7 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:46 | 0.23 | 60.8% | +20.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 16:41 | 0.16 | 37.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 15:41 | 0.19 | 60.6% | +20.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 6 | 15:39 | 0.14 | 31.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:12 | 0.04 | 45.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0.00 | 36.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0.08 | 45.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0.00 | 38.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0.01 | 45.1% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:01 | 0.32 | 39.9% | +12.6 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 | 0.00 | 17.7% | +12.6 |
| O | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 2.38 | −1.6 | 60:46 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22:34 | 0.14 | 59.7% | +54.9 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:16 | 0.29 | 91.9% | +50.9 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:56 | 0.37 | 90.5% | +50.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20:08 | 0.01 | 89.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:23 | 0.05 | 63.0% | +44.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 4 | 18:27 | 0.16 | 80.9% | +73.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 18:10 | 0.39 | 82.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0.00 | 37.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:27 | 0.10 | 51.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:02 | 0.10 | 49.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 15:47 | 0.00 | 42.3% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 14:29 | 0.12 | 61.3% | +44.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 13:07 | 0.04 | 12.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:42 | 0.02 | 89.5% | +10.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11:07 | 0.47 | 84.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 11:06 | 0.02 | 23.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:53 | 0.08 | 85.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 8:44 | 0.00 | 15.3% | 0.0 |
| W | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 2.42 | −0.6 | 60:58 |