Fri, Jan 2, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 16 | 114 | 15 | 325 |
| STL | 14 | 27 | 18 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Colton Sissons, Kaedan Korczak · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:39STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:39STLJustin FaulkAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Tyler Tucker · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 6:37STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 9:10VGKMark StoneAssists: Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 8:21VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Braeden Bowman · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 18:27STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Pavel Buchnevich · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:35STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
- P1 3:44VGKNoah Hanifin: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P1 7:09STLJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:11VGKBen Hutton: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:38VGKMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Dvorsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Dorofeyev – Bowman4:28
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Stone – Marner – Howden6:16
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Saad – Sissons – Kolesar9:49
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman6:37
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud13:55
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Megna – Whitecloud4:20
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Korczak14:52
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Neighbours9:56
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Snuggerud8:19
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Toropchenko7:21
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Schenn – Neighbours – Snuggerud2:01
xG 0.00–0.11 (2%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg16:58
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Fowler – Kessel8:41
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Tucker – Kessel3:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).