Sat, Jan 3, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 015 | 19 | 411 | 535 |
| CAR | 110 | 28 | 010 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:09CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Eric Robinson · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:47COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:47CARNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 7:50CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 1:09COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 1:42COLJack DruryAssists: Ross Colton · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 7:30COLBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:42COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Martin Necas, Artturi Lehkonen · Other, 0.81 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:36COLDevon Toews: Interference2 min
- P1 11:58COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P1 16:33CARWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min
- P2 2:55COLZakhar Bardakov: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:52CARK'Andre Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:47CARJackson Blake: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:11CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:11CARNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Colton – Drury7:19
xG 0.54–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin9:48
xG 0.72–0.22 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bardakov – Makar4:43
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas11:48
xG 0.88–1.51 (37%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson10:56
xG 1.03–0.26 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski11:37
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar10:03
xG 0.35–1.60 (18%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Aho – Svechnikov9:44
xG 1.37–1.00 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Stankoven8:25
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Carrier – Robinson – Kotkaniemi5:48
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Hall – Jankowski – Blake8:22
xG 0.03–0.30 (9%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller11:29
xG 1.06–0.71 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker2:05
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield12:12
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).