Sun, Jan 4, 2026·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 116 | 19 | 15 | 330 |
| NJD | 18 | 06 | 015 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51CARNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–0
- P1 7:34NJDDawson MercerAssists: Arseny Gritsyuk, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 7:47CARTaylor HallGWGUnassisted · Poke, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 12:16CARLogan StankovenAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:38NJDDawson Mercer: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:14NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P2 12:56CARSean Walker: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:03CARLogan Stankoven: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:13CARLogan Stankoven: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:53CARJordan Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:21NJDOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:27CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Aho – Svechnikov9:29
xG 1.31–0.05 (96%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake7:59
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier8:13
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Philp3:24
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller11:45
xG 1.79–0.09 (95%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield12:57
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nikishin – Nystrom8:39
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Noesen – Glendening – Lammikko5:05
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Meier – Gritsyuk – Mercer9:58
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 12–7goals 1–2
- Palat – Brown – Glass7:36
xG 0.11–0.58 (16%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Hughes12:02
xG 0.41–1.41 (23%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Hughes3:13
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:14
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Dillon – White7:55
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).