Mon, Jan 5, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 5, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 08 | 111 | 49 | 528 |
| CGY | 113 | 018 | 011 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Ryan Lomberg, MacKenzie Weegar · Bat, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:17SEAJacob MelansonAssists: Ryan Winterton · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 1:57SEAShane WrightGWGAssists: Ben Meyers · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 5:12SEAVince DunnAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 17:25SEAFrederick GaudreauENAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–1
- P3 17:39SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:48SEAAdam Larsson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 19:18CGYJoel Farabee: Holding2 min
- P2 6:44SEAChandler Stephenson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Meyers won the faceoff against Kirkland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Kakko – Beniers10:28
xG 0.82–0.49 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Winterton – Melanson – Meyers9:11
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- McCann – Wright – Catton11:36
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen12:54
xG 0.38–0.72 (35%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:22
xG 1.18–0.46 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Lindgren – Fleury16:21
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Evans15:30
xG 0.70–0.90 (44%)attempts 11–20goals 2–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Farabee – Zary14:34
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Sharangovich11:22
xG 0.57–0.66 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:59
xG 0.48–0.65 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka7:27
xG 0.39–0.74 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kuznetsov18:48
xG 0.96–0.77 (56%)attempts 22–17goals 1–2
- Hanley – Pachal12:34
xG 0.70–0.82 (46%)attempts 18–11goals 0–2
- Andersson – Bahl18:13
xG 0.69–1.03 (40%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).