Mon, Jan 5, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 08 | 217 | 235 |
| LAK | 07 | 216 | 210 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:34LAKWarren FoegeleAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Jeff Malott · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 17:52LAKKevin FialaAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Alex Turcotte · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 5:55MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Jonas Brodin, Nico Sturm · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 9:20LAKAndrei KuzmenkoGWGAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 15:21MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 18:21LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Alex Laferriere, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:16LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P2 1:25LAKQuinton Byfield: Interference2 min
- P2 7:35LAKAndrei Kuzmenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00MINDanila Yurov: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00MINDanila Yurov: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:05LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:03LAKMikey Anderson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Hinostroza – Hartman5:20
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Sturm8:04
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy6:55
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov2:10
xG 0.01–0.20 (3%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Middleton2:53
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin10:26
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Faber2:35
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Byfield – Laferriere2:25
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Malott – Helenius5:59
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Laferriere3:28
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Armia – Foegele – Byfield5:24
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson16:13
xG 1.07–0.42 (72%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Ceci10:59
xG 0.70–0.32 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Clarke12:38
xG 0.34–0.88 (28%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).