Tue, Jan 6, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 05 | 18 | 218 |
| PHI | 213 | 218 | 18 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Troy Terry · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:22PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Christian Dvorak, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:23PHITrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Cam York, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 1:15PHICam YorkGWGAssists: Nikita Grebenkin, Noah Cates · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 14:40PHITravis SanheimAssists: Noah Cates · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 1:25ANAAlex KillornPPAssists: Troy Terry, Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 18:46PHINikita GrebenkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:38PHINoah Cates: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 2:38ANAJansen Harkins: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:38PHINoah Cates: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:38PHINoah Cates: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 4:21PHITrevor Zegras: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:09ANATroy Terry: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:49ANAJansen Harkins: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 18:08ANABeckett Sennecke: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:39ANARoss Johnston: Interference5 min
- P2 2:39ANARoss Johnston: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 9:23ANALeo Carlsson: Interference2 min
- P3 0:09PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:51PHIGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:51ANARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:14ANAJacob Trouba: Elbowing2 min
- P3 9:29ANAChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:46ANARadko Gudas: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Abols won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke9:52
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson8:03
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnston – Poehling2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Harkins – Poehling2:19
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLaCombe – Moore3:27
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Helleson – LaCombe3:01
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger5:38
xG 0.22–0.23 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Couturier – Tippett – Barkey5:27
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras8:24
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Abols – Grundstrom – Grebenkin2:54
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Abols – Grundstrom4:07
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndrae – Drysdale5:26
xG 0.25–0.18 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Seeler – Andrae3:44
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen7:09
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).