Wed, Jan 7, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 114 | 08 | 129 |
| MTL | 014 | 310 | 112 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:10MTLAlexandre TexierAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:05MTLLane HutsonGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Alexandre Texier · Slap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 8:12MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.27 xG0–3
- P2 17:39CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Hunter Brzustewicz · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 3:56MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Alexandre Texier, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:28MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:55MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:55CGYMatt Coronato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:15MTLArber Xhekaj: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:21MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:24CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFarabee – Sharangovich – Zary6:12
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato11:56
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Farabee3:42
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Zary – Klapka2:10
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Bahl16:18
xG 0.13–0.63 (17%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Hanley – Brzustewicz12:39
xG 0.58–1.09 (35%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov13:03
xG 0.23–1.33 (15%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBlais – Veleno – Beck10:18
xG 1.01–0.13 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov9:58
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Texier – Caufield9:48
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Bolduc12:15
xG 0.71–0.54 (57%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Hutson15:13
xG 1.66–0.71 (70%)attempts 20–19goals 3–0
- Struble – Xhekaj14:38
xG 0.71–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson13:02
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).