Thu, Jan 8, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 110 | 111 | 227 |
| MTL | 28 | 14 | 38 | 620 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59MTLNoah DobsonAssists: Mike Matheson, Oliver Kapanen · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:35MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Juraj Slafkovský · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:33FLASam BennettUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 13:41MTLAlexandre TexierGWGAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 7:26MTLAlexandre TexierAssists: Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.30 xG1–4
- P3 11:23FLASam BennettAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:59MTLJuraj SlafkovskýENAssists: Oliver Kapanen, Lane Hutson · Other, 0.80 xG2–5
- P3 19:10MTLAlexandre TexierAssists: Sammy Blais, Joseph Veleno · Bat, 0.11 xG2–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:24MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:45FLAUvis Balinskis: Interference2 min
- P1 17:41MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Interference2 min
- P2 16:54FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:06MTLPhillip Danault: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:26FLADonovan Sebrango: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:26MTLSammy Blais: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:12FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:45FLADonovan Sebrango: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:45MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:45MTLOwen Beck: Charging2 min
- P3 18:45FLADonovan Sebrango: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:45FLADonovan Sebrango: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:45MTLArber Xhekaj: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kapanen won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich6:25
xG 1.12–0.11 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer9:06
xG 0.70–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell11:33
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Kunin – Gregor – Studnicka4:32
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Sebrango7:51
xG 1.46–0.47 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–2
- Ekblad – Forsling11:06
xG 0.61–0.04 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Balinskis12:30
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Texier – Caufield9:37
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Blais – Veleno – Beck4:30
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov8:48
xG 0.20–0.73 (22%)attempts 4–13goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Bolduc8:31
xG 0.08–1.10 (7%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Carrier2:31
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson12:58
xG 0.45–0.74 (38%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Struble – Xhekaj7:03
xG 0.51–0.87 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).