Thu, Jan 8, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 13 | 04 | 213 |
| CAR | 07 | 319 | 29 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18ANARyan PoehlingAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 8:56CARMark JankowskiAssists: Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 12:04ANAMikael GranlundAssists: Mason McTavish, Beckett Sennecke · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:05CARLogan StankovenAssists: Taylor Hall, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 16:08CARJalen ChatfieldGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 10:39CARJackson BlakeAssists: Alexander Nikishin, Logan Stankoven · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 17:11CARTaylor HallENAssists: Sean Walker, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:05ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 8:11CARWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:50CARSean Walker: Delaying game2 min
- P1 16:05ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40CARSean Walker: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:11ANAAlex Killorn: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – McTavish – Sennecke11:56
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Johnston – Harkins – Washe5:30
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Killorn – Strome – Carlsson12:37
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kreider – Poehling – Gauthier8:45
xG 0.19–1.06 (15%)attempts 3–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe14:48
xG 0.60–0.25 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Trouba – Mintyukov4:19
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Helleson – Zellweger2:35
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake10:01
xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson9:42
xG 0.71–0.01 (98%)attempts 18–1goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis11:35
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Aho – Svechnikov10:32
xG 0.85–0.63 (57%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chatfield15:50
xG 1.50–0.19 (89%)attempts 18–7goals 3–0
- Nikishin – Nystrom10:35
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Walker – Miller17:10
xG 0.55–0.78 (41%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).