Thu, Jan 8, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Islanders 1, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 19 | 07 | 05 | 0 | 131 |
| NSH | 010 | 19 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:14NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Scott Mayfield, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 19:19NSHRyan O'ReillySHAssists: Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NSH Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 3. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 4. NYI Simon Holmstrom stopped
- 5. NSH Steven Stamkos stopped
- 6. NYI Emil Heineman stopped
Penalties (9)
- P2 2:23NYIKyle MacLean: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:23NSHCole Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:25NSHTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:25NYICasey Cizikas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:05NYISimon Holmstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:29NSHMichael McCarron: Interference2 min
- P3 2:10NSHTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:08NYITony DeAngelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:08NSHLuke Evangelista: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Lee – Barzal – Heineman12:40
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Duclair – Shabanov9:20
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Pageau – Drouin – Holmstrom8:49
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Ritchie6:34
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo11:18
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Mayfield – McWard8:07
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Pulock – Schaefer12:08
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJost – Svechkov – Wood5:47
xG 0.11–0.04 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Bunting – Evangelista9:54
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer7:48
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:26
xG 0.46–0.77 (37%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Blankenburg14:05
xG 1.02–0.33 (76%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Josi – Perbix13:32
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Skjei – Wilsby13:49
xG 0.42–0.97 (30%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).